{"id":1311,"date":"2021-10-05T09:47:42","date_gmt":"2021-10-05T06:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cigdemguven.com\/genel\/taking-action-and-making-decisions-in-environments-of-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2022-08-11T14:00:34","modified_gmt":"2022-08-11T11:00:34","slug":"belirsizlik-ortamlarinda-aksiyon-alma-ve-karar-verme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cigdemguven.com\/tr\/yazilar\/belirsizlik-ortamlarinda-aksiyon-alma-ve-karar-verme\/","title":{"rendered":"Belirsizlik Ortamlar\u0131nda Aksiyon alma ve Karar Verme"},"content":{"rendered":"{“main-title”:{“component”:”hc_title”,”id”:”main-title”,”title”:””,”subtitle”:””,”title_content”:{“component”:”hc_title_empty”,”id”:”title-empty”}},”section_QvNqz”:{“component”:”hc_section”,”id”:”section_QvNqz”,”section_width”:”full-width”,”animation”:””,”animation_time”:””,”timeline_animation”:””,”timeline_delay”:””,”timeline_order”:””,”vertical_row”:””,”css_classes”:”section-color no-padding-bottom no-padding-top “,”custom_css_classes”:”containerblog”,”custom_css_styles”:””,”section_content”:[{“component”:”hc_column”,”id”:”P1FCZ”,”column_width”:”col-md-12″,”animation”:””,”animation_time”:””,”timeline_animation”:””,”timeline_delay”:””,”timeline_order”:””,”css_classes”:”boxed-area align-items-center “,”custom_css_classes”:””,”custom_css_styles”:””,”main_content”:[{“component”:”hc_title_tag”,”id”:”5ZtkF”,”css_classes”:””,”custom_css_classes”:””,”custom_css_styles”:””,”text”:”Belirsizlik Ortamlar\u0131nda Aksiyon alma ve Karar Verme”,”tag”:”h1″},{“component”:”hc_image_box”,”id”:”P92Nk”,”css_classes”:””,”custom_css_classes”:””,”custom_css_styles”:””,”image”:”https:\/\/www.cigdemguven.com\/medias\/2021\/10\/cigdem-guven-decision-1024×714.jpg|753|1080|1180″,”link_type”:”lightbox”,”lightbox_animation”:””,”caption”:”Belirsizlik Ortamlar\u0131nda Aksiyon alma ve Karar Verme”,”inner_caption”:false,”new_window”:false,”link”:”https:\/\/www.cigdemguven.com\/medias\/2021\/10\/cigdem-guven-decision-1024×714.jpg”,”link_content”:[],”lightbox_size”:””,”scrollbox”:false,”icon”:””,”image_animation”:””,”icon_animation”:””,”thumb_size”:”full”,”icon_hidden”:true,”caption_img_box”:””,”alt”:””}]}],”section_settings”:””},”section_aSGAU”:{“component”:”hc_section”,”id”:”section_aSGAU”,”section_width”:””,”animation”:””,”animation_time”:””,”timeline_animation”:””,”timeline_delay”:””,”timeline_order”:””,”vertical_row”:”true”,”css_classes”:”section-color no-padding-bottom no-padding-top full-width-md full-width-sm “,”custom_css_classes”:”containervideo”,”custom_css_styles”:””,”section_content”:[{“component”:”hc_column”,”id”:”column_0qrhK”,”column_width”:”col-md-12″,”animation”:””,”animation_time”:””,”timeline_animation”:””,”timeline_delay”:””,”timeline_order”:””,”css_classes”:”align-center section-color no-padding-bottom no-padding-top boxed-area full-width-md full-width-sm “,”custom_css_classes”:”containervideo “,”custom_css_styles”:””,”main_content”:[{“component”:”hc_media_box”,”id”:”qMEEl”,”css_classes”:””,”custom_css_classes”:”reveal-button”,”custom_css_styles”:””,”image”:”https:\/\/www.cigdemguven.com\/medias\/2021\/10\/belirsizlik-1024×576.jpg|720|1280|1597″,”title”:””,”box_style”:”down”,”image_animation”:””,”content_animation”:””,”thumb_size”:”full”,”subtitle”:””,”extra_content”:””,”text”:”![](\\\"\/medias\/2020\/09\/cigdem-guven-play-button.png\\\")
“,”alignment”:”align-center”,”alt”:””,”link_type”:”lightbox”,”lightbox_animation”:””,”caption”:””,”inner_caption”:false,”new_window”:false,”link”:”https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=9OCgcfTauKE”,”link_content”:[],”lightbox_size”:””,”scrollbox”:false}]}],”section_settings”:””},”section_vMT2b”:{“component”:”hc_section”,”id”:”section_vMT2b”,”section_width”:””,”animation”:””,”animation_time”:””,”timeline_animation”:””,”timeline_delay”:””,”timeline_order”:””,”vertical_row”:””,”css_classes”:”no-padding-bottom no-padding-top “,”custom_css_classes”:”blogtext”,”custom_css_styles”:””,”section_content”:[{“component”:”hc_column”,”id”:”LT1Il”,”column_width”:”col-md-12″,”animation”:””,”animation_time”:””,”timeline_animation”:””,”timeline_delay”:””,”timeline_order”:””,”css_classes”:””,”custom_css_classes”:””,”custom_css_styles”:””,”main_content”:[{“component”:”hc_wp_editor”,”id”:”tdycS”,”css_classes”:””,”custom_css_classes”:””,”custom_css_styles”:””,”editor_content”:”D\u00fcnya asl\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kaostan olu\u015fur. \u00c7o\u011fu zaman kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z insanlar\u0131n, y\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz sokaklar\u0131n, g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz nesnelerin ve soludu\u011fumuz havan\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fini bilmeyiz. Burada bir belirsizlik vard\u0131r. B\u00f6yle durumlarda ise daha temkinli davran\u0131r\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bilinmeyene gitmek, bilinmeyeni ke\u015ffetmek \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ancak bu noktalarda dahi bir tak\u0131m aksiyonlar almam\u0131z ve karar vermemiz gerekir.\\n\\nBelirli ya da belirlenebilir olma hepimizin arzu etti\u011fi bir durumdur. Ancak hayat her zaman istedi\u011fimiz gibi olmuyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla belirsizli\u011fe de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekir. Belirlilik en temel anlam\u0131yla, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek olay\u0131n ve do\u011furabilece\u011fi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n kesin olarak bilinmesidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bankac\u0131l\u0131k ve finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde verilecek kredileri d\u00fczenleyen belirli bir mevzuat h\u00fckm\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fi tarih bellidir. B\u00f6yle bir durumda belirlilik s\u00f6z konusudur ve bunun do\u011furabilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131klar \u00f6nceden tahmin edilebilir ve ona g\u00f6re aksiyon al\u0131nabilir. Belirsizlik ise ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak olaylar\u0131n ve do\u011fal olarak bunlar\u0131n ne gibi sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finin bilinmemesidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, pandeminin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda, belirsizlik h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r riski azaltmak i\u00e7in daralmaya gitmi\u015f ve mevcut b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini korumak ad\u0131na birtak\u0131m \u00f6nlemler alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\\n\\nRisk ortam\u0131nda karar vermede birden fazla olay vard\u0131r. Ancak bu olaylar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 tam olarak bilinmemektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ortada mevcut bir risk vard\u0131r. Bu durumlarda risk tan\u0131mlamalar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru bir \u015fekilde yapmak, olaylar\u0131 en faydal\u0131 \u015fekilde lehe \u00e7evirmek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Bunu yapman\u0131n y\u00f6ntemi de ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak sonu\u00e7lar konusunda optimum beklenen de\u011fere ula\u015fmakt\u0131r. Beklenen de\u011fer k\u00e2r\u0131 en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 veya zarar\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indirmeyi hedefler. Beklenen de\u011fer teorisine g\u00f6re bir yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde kazan\u0131lacak miktar, yat\u0131r\u0131lan miktardan fazla ise riskin al\u0131nmas\u0131 daha do\u011fru olacakt\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, pandemide eleman \u00e7\u0131karmak, pandeminin s\u00fcrece\u011fi s\u00fcre, yeni eleman bulma zorlu\u011fu ve \u00f6denecek tazminatlar bak\u0131m\u0131ndan kurum i\u00e7in daha zararl\u0131 olacaksa, i\u015f\u00e7i \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131p bunu bir yat\u0131r\u0131m olarak g\u00f6rmek daha k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur.\\n\\nBeklenti teorisi belirsizlik durumunda karar vermeyi ele alan bir ba\u015fka teoridir. Teoriye g\u00f6re insanlar her ko\u015fulda rasyonel karar alabilme yetisinden yoksundur. Bir yat\u0131r\u0131m k\u00e2r getirse dahi, g\u00fcncel piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir sat\u0131\u015f insanlarda k\u00e2r yerine zarar alg\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir banka ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 100 milyon dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n de\u011feri g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde 150 milyon dolar oldu, fakat birtak\u0131m ko\u015fullar sebebiyle 140 milyona \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131ysa, bu teoriye g\u00f6re y\u00f6neticiler duruma duygusal yakla\u015facak ve 10 milyon dolarl\u0131k kay\u0131p k\u00e2ra odaklanacakt\u0131r. Yani burada elde edilmi\u015f 40 milyon k\u00e2rdan ziyade kay\u0131p \u00f6n planda olacakt\u0131r.\\n\\nOyun teorisi, stratejik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce ile ilgili bir kavramd\u0131r. Hayat\u0131m\u0131za sadece bizim kararlar\u0131m\u0131z y\u00f6n vermez, buna ek olarak piyasadaki di\u011fer ki\u015filer de birtak\u0131m etkilerde bulunur. \u0130\u015fte ya\u015fam\u0131m\u0131z, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z ve gelece\u011fimiz bu olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n bir b\u00fct\u00fcn h\u00e2linde bir araya gelmesi sonucu \u015fekillenir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hamle yapmadan \u00f6nde di\u011fer oyuncular\u0131n da davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tahmin edilmesi gerekir. Buna stratejik ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k denir. Y\u00f6neticiler ve rekabetin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde di\u011fer oyuncular\u0131n davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, yeni bir kredi paketi a\u00e7\u0131klanacaksa veya bir politika benimsenecekse di\u011fer oyuncular\u0131n davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc oyun teorisinde kazan\u00e7lar, di\u011fer oyuncunun davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r. Oyun teorisinin en bilinen \u00f6rne\u011fi mahk\u00fbm \u00f6rne\u011fidir. Alacaklar\u0131 hapis cezas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcresi birbirlerinin kararlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 mahk\u00fbmlar, birbirleriyle ileti\u015fimleri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in en rasyonel sonucu almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Fakat bu sonu\u00e7 her zaman en iyi sonu\u00e7 olmayabilir. Politika benimsemek konusunda oyun teorisini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne almak \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda asl\u0131nda, oyuncular\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar birbirine s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.\\n\\nBelirsizlik alt\u0131nda karar vermenin bir\u00e7ok risk bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ger\u00e7ek. Bunun i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc, iyimserlik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc, e\u015fit olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc, pi\u015fmanl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc ve uzla\u015fma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc gibi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctler benimsenmi\u015ftir. K\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcnde, en k\u00f6t\u00fc olay\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011finden hareketle k\u00f6t\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar aras\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenlik d\u00fczeyi en iyi olan\u0131 se\u00e7ilir. \u0130yimserlik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcnde ise k\u00e2r maksimizasyonu hedef al\u0131n\u0131r ve iyimserlik d\u00fczeyi en iyi olan se\u00e7ene\u011fi se\u00e7me yoluna gidilir. E\u015fit olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcnden olas\u0131l\u0131klara ait hi\u00e7bir bilginin s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda faydalan\u0131l\u0131r. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctte t\u00fcm olas\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fit oldu\u011fu kabul edilir. Pi\u015fmanl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcnde, pi\u015fmanl\u0131k matrisi olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 \u00fczerine, karar verici bir karar verdi\u011finde ve ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hangi se\u00e7ene\u011fi se\u00e7ti\u011finde en az pi\u015fman olacaksa ona g\u00f6re bir tercihte bulunur. Uzla\u015fma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcnde ise iyimserlik-g\u00fcvenlik d\u00fczeylerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 en y\u00fcksek olan se\u00e7enek tercih edilir.\\n\\nKarar verme, y\u00f6netim a\u015famas\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle belirsizlik alt\u0131nda hangi kararlar\u0131n ne olas\u0131l\u0131klarla ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011finin bilinmemesi \u00f6zellikle bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde karar verme s\u00fcrecini \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli h\u00e2le getirmektedir. Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir karar verme s\u00fcreci i\u00e7in takip edilmesi gereken a\u015famalar vard\u0131r. Bunlardan ilki karar verilecek sorunun tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Sorun tan\u0131mland\u0131ktan sonra se\u00e7enekler belirlenir, se\u00e7enekler mevcut verilerle de\u011ferlendirilir, en uygun se\u00e7enek belirlenir ve uygulamaya konulur. Uygulamaya konulmas\u0131ndan sonra yap\u0131lacak i\u015flem ise karar\u0131n etkinli\u011fini test etmek ve sonucunu izlemek olur. Peki bu s\u00fcreci en etkin bir bi\u00e7imde nas\u0131l kullanabiliriz?\\n\\nEtkili karar vermek, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 iyi de\u011ferlendirmek ve s\u00fcre\u00e7ten en k\u00e2rl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Bunun i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle belirsizlik ve kaos kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. Bu t\u00fcr senaryolar \u00f6nceden belirlenir tan\u0131mlan\u0131rsa bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden \u00e7ok rahat gelinebilir. Bunun i\u00e7in de stratejik planlama \u00f6nemlidir. Bu do\u011frultuda bir stratejik plan olu\u015fturmak, vizyon, misyon, hedef, m\u00fc\u015fteri beklentileri, piyasa durumu gibi temel unsurlar\u0131 belirlemek \u00f6nemlidir. Ayr\u0131ca tahmin yetkinli\u011fi tan\u0131mlamas\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 da \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. T\u00fcm bunlar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken, olas\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 \u00f6nceden belirlemek ve bu senaryolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapmak, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerilerini tart\u0131\u015fmak, dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k hizmeti almak ve ge\u00e7mi\u015ften ders \u00e7\u0131karmakt\u0131r.\\n\\nEtkili karar verme, artan rekabet ortam\u0131nda her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn \u00f6nemini artt\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yap\u0131lan hatalar, i\u015fletmelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlara u\u011framas\u0131na neden olabiliyor. Bundan korunman\u0131n yolu ise \u00e7e\u015fitli senaryolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nceden haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak, hatalardan ders \u00e7\u0131karmak ve etkin bir strateji belirlemektir. Etkin stratejinin belirlenmesi ise ancak mevcut durumun ve olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n etrafl\u0131ca tan\u0131mlanabilmesi ve de\u011ferlendirilebilmesi sonucu ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. 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